Football Betting Spread

25/01/08

A Success Story: How This Female Came to Watch Football

by Kay Olson

JANUARY 24 2008

To many females, the passion and excitement men feel about sports are two feelings that elude them. "It's just a game," we say. We don't understand why on Monday night at 8 pm, the game will be on television, whether we like it or not.

If a guy is lucky, he can sucker his lady into watching a game for Tom Brady's looks or Tony Romo's smile. But these flimsy reasons for viewership will eventually fizzle. They're cute, but not that cute.

As with most things in life, females need to have a reason for commitment. Even if it's just to watch football. While the most ideal situation would be that they just love the game, it's not completely realistic.

Which leads me to how this year, at 22, I will be watching the Super Bowl for the first time-and I'm not talking about the commercials or Tom Brady or the even halftime show. (Though I actually enjoy Tom Petty, I probably won't be too interested.)

It was so sneaky. I was hanging out with my man and my guy friends at the beginning of the season and it just so happened to be a Sunday.

When game time rolled around, everyone was out of the pool and into the house, onto the couch with the chips, beer, and delivery. Initially, I had attempted to sneak out. I'd never really cared much for watching football and I'd definitely never understood how people were so into it-but the lure of a beer calling my name kept my there. So I figured I'd hang around for a little while.

And then it happened.

"I've got $300 on [whatever team] to win. They've got to beat the spread and I took the over." Wha-wha-wha-what? Three hundred dollars on a single game? I didn't know what all that "spread and over" talk was, but I got the $300 part.

I was bewildered as to how anyone could risk that much money on a single game-just one chance to either win some money or lose it all-but to each his own. So I did the only thing I could do. I put my heart and soul into the team he bet on.

I cared. I really cared-this team could not lose! Because if they lost, my friend would lose all that money. For the first time in my life, I got mad if the QB threw a bad pass. I was overjoyed if we scored or our defense repeatedly pushed the other team to long third downs.

I really just needed the team to win because my friend needed the team to win.

My tender heart reached out to him. It was like I was doing something good for my friend and all I was doing was hoping the team could win so he wouldn't lose his money.

I had to keep watching.

And so it went for the next few weeks. Until I had to change my gym schedule and ended up at the gym on Sunday afternoons-where conveniently, two games were on the TVs that hung above my elliptical.

I could have watched my favorite channel, The Food Network, but something made me stray from it. I knew who my friends had bet on, so I had to cheer for their teams. If I didn't they may lose money, and I couldn't be responsible for that.

Granted, they lost money more often than not, but I still felt compelled to cheer on their teams.

Eventually, I stopped asking who they were betting on, but continued to watch. Wherever I could, with whomever I could find. It was weird, but I loved watching the game.

That's why this year I will be seated in front of my HDTV with the other football fans, watching the biggest game of the year and not just the biggest commercials. I didn't know it would come to this, and I still really don't know how it happened. I continually ask myself why I wasted 21 years of not caring about football and still haven't come up with an answer.

My view on the game is that the mighty Pats haven't looked as hot towards the end of their season as they did at the beginning. And the "who are they" Giants were an early embarrassment (except that game against the Eagles where they sacked McNabb 7 times or whatever) have been an impressive team in their late season games. I don't know how I'm going to last the next week and a half of hype for the big face-off.

I'll probably make it through with SportsCenter.

04/01/08

The Babysitter and the Baby, Committing Felonies

01/03/08 - 3:33 pm

posted by Monponsett

It's Wild Card Weekend in the NFL!

Elle has just 4 more weeks to pay for college via the mob!

Washington at Seattle

We could go into technical matters like Seattle's brutal pass rush, Washington's ability to run the ball with a guy who dreeses as Sheriff Gonna Getcha during the week, the Walpole guy starting at QB for the 'Skins, or the concept of winning one for the Gipper (with the Gipper in this case being a thugged-out Sean Taylor) to choose an outcome for this game.... but that would go against my gambler's instinct, which is telling me that no one who got stomped like the Skins got stomped at the feet of the Patriots is winning snit this season.

Washington knows the hammer waiting for them should they advance to the Super Bowl against the Patriots.... and they already know how it feels when that hammer bashes them around the field for 60 minutes. Seattle is still cherry in that regard...and they have Deion Branch there saying, "Them Pats ain't all that." Seattle still has hope for the future.

As misguided as that hope may be...it will be enough to get them past a Washington team who's best player was murdered a few weeks ago.

I smell me a blowout, folks... it won't be as close as the score I've predicted.

Seattle 26, Washington 17

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

Another playoff game, another how'd-he-get-there QB. David Garrard, meet The Game Played At That Other Level. Jacksonville has already whipped Pity twice this year, and the odds favor Jackie by 1.5 points. Eff the odds. Pittsburgh has won the whole thing with this squad, while Jacksonville hasn't won Ditka yet/ever.

I see Pittsburgh winning this one comfortably.

Pittsburgh 22, Jacksonville 14

NY Giants at Tampa Bay

Tampa basically crawled out of a division that someone had to win. NY has the worse Manning brother. Talent-wise, this would make a great Arena Bowl...but if this were a college game, it'd be Southwest Schmuck State vs. the University of Clown Fools in the Hoover Straight Up Sucka Bowl.

This game is only interesting if you're a babysitter/sports betting columnist trying to decide how to bet the Dallas game the following week, or if you just watch football with the hope of seeing someone getting their tibia broken.

Or both.

NYG, 20-18

Tennessee at San Diego

Granted... Vince Young has a rep for going out to Cali and winning big games agaiunst powerhouse teams. Sure, Sandy Ego has looked like ass for a lot of this season. Also... betting on a Norv Turner team is a good way to lose money.

What to do? What to do? How to bet?

Why not ask Gabrielle?

Sure, she's still playing with dolls and stuff...and,if you really look at it, I'm sort of involving a 5 year old in a felony racketeering conspiracy...but if she hits the spread, I (actually, the Colonel) will take her to see Hannah Montana.

Gabby likes...San Diego!

Granted... she thinks "San Diego" is a person, but we're going with it.

When pressed for a score, she said "a hundred to ninety-two." We'll read that as an 8 point spread.

San Diego 21, Tennessee 13

18/12/07

Bears @ Vikings, Open Thread

By Gonzo
Posted on Mon, 17 December 2007 at 20:13:39 EDT

Note to my fellow co-workers. . .if a commander's call starts at 1500, the commander gives us his talk and stuff like that, and he then opens the floor to questions. . .feel free to stop asking dumb-ass questions that don't apply to 98% of the people in the room BEFORE 1730!!

Argh.

Anyway, here we are at the Vikings' latest "biggest game of the season." A win tonight for Minnesota would go a LONG way in solidifying their playoff chances. A win tonight for the Beloved Purple would knock Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, and Philadelphia ALL out of playoff consideration, essentially making the wild-card chase a four-team affair between Minnesota, New Orleans, Washington (who the Vikings play next week in their next "biggest game of the season,") and the suddenly in big trouble New York Football Giants.

The Bears, to put it mildly, have been a disappointment this season. Thought by many to be the best in the NFC after their trip to the Super Bowl last season, a loss for them tonight gives them a very good chance of finishing in last place in the NFC North. As you can see from the stats, their vaunted defense really hasn't played very well at all this season. . .some of that due to injury, some of it due to other factors. . .and their offense is starting their third different QB of the season, and a guy that hasn't started a game since the 2005 season finale.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are coming into this game on a serious roll, as we all know. The last time these two teams got together, Adrian Peterson gashed the Bears for 224 yards (on only 20 carries) and 3 TDs, as well as getting the kickoff return that set up Ryan Longwell's game-winning field goal as time expired.

Logic says that the Vikings should win this game easily. But, as we all know, with NFC North divisional matchups, you can usually throw logic right out the window. I think the Vikings are going to win tonight. . .but if you're betting on them to cover the spread (which was Minnesota -10 the last time I checked), you might be in for a disappointment.

Gonzo's Final Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 17

Let's get this thing done, people.

SKOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL VIKINGS!!!!

www.dailynorseman.com

10/12/07

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans Betting Preview

Kris Lazaro, expert football handicapper from NFLSystems.com, has made a prediction on this game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play the Houston Texans this Sunday in a game where both teams look like they are going in opposite directions. The Buccaneers opened up as 1 point underdogs to the Texans, but have since been bet up to a field goal favorite at most sportsbooks at the time of writing. Tampa Bay is currently 8-4 straight up and against the spread, while Houston is 5-7 straight up and against the spread. The Buccaneers are both 3-3 on the road and against the number, while the Texans are 3-2 at home and against the spread.

The Buccaneers are riding a 4 game winning streak, recently beating the New Orleans by the score of 27-23 last Sunday. Although Jeff Garcia, the starting quarterback for the Bucs was out, back up quarterback Luke McCown fitted in nicely into the offense. Head coach John Gruden has once again been cooking up his defensive magic as they have become one of the leagues best defensive teams, giving up on average 15.6 points per game. In what should be a boring NFC South race this season, the Bucs need to win as many games as early as possible to secure themselves of good seeding and resting their players at the end of the season.

04/11/07

Week Nine Football and Point Spreads Questions

By Eric Hz Section: Football

Posted on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 08:24:07 AM EDT

This week finds parity alive and well. There isn't a single double-digit favorite and most lines are under 4 points. There is no way there won't be double-digit victories. It's just the lines don't offer clues as to which teams will have those victories.

Byes: New York Giants, St Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears

Washington Redskins at New York Jets (+3.5):

Apparently, no one is holding last week's 52-7 shellacking at the hands of the Patriots against the Redskins. Even so, laying 3.5 points on the road seems beyond this team's capabilities.

Without #1 WR Laverneus Coles, can QB Kellen Clemens quickly put to rest the Chad Pennington Era?

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5):

Can RB Ryan Grant have a good enough repeat performance to solidfy the #1 RB postion for the Packers?

Anyone remember Priest Holmes? Following the team's bye, how much use will he get?

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5):

Is Kurt Warner healthy? He must be because there is little reason to believe Tim Rattay will solve the TB defense.

Is the Cardinals' defense so good that the Bucs can't be favored by more at home?

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-4):

Raise your hand if you think Carolina is in first place?

After seven games, will the real fantasy Vince Young stand-up or is he what he has been so far - worthless?

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-3):

With Frank Gore hobbled and the passing game in shambles, is the line too low?

Will head coach Bobby Petrino finally increase RB Jerious Norwood's opportunities for production?

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-3):

If QB Quinn Gray weren't so bad, I'd wonder about being such big road dogs.

Who'd a thunk the Saints would be favored in this game following the teams first three games? Will Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush continue to justify their owner's patience?

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-3):

What happens next in the soap opera at RB? Will the soon-to-be suspended Travis Henry produce or will it be Selvin Young? This is Mike Shannahan's team so maybe Mike Bell gets a shot.

Will Kevin Jones prove his Top 10 RB status against the creamy rush defense of the Broncos?

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+1):

Oddly, this line opened with the Bengals as three-point dogs. A four-point swing means something. It couldn't be the return of non-pass-catching RB Rudi Johnson, could it?

Vegas was not impressed by the Losman/Evans bomb last week. The Bengals have not allowed fewer than 20 points in any game so far and those included the Jets and Ravens. The Bills offense is at least as good as those two teams.

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (+7):

The Vikings can stop the run. To be seven-point home 'dogs, expect a good passing game from QB Phillip Rivers.

The team is all about how well RB Adrian Peterson does. There is nothing else on offense to worry about.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-1.5):

Will the Seahawks' offense produce and make WR DJ Hackett into the sleeper he was expected to be?

After converting all of the fantasy punditry into believers, will QB Derek Anderson go Brian Griese on them?

New England Patroits at Indianapolis Colts (+5):

Who'd have thought the defending Super Bowl Champions would average 32 points per game and allow jst 15 and still be five-point underdogs at home?

I subscribe to Chris Liss of Rotowire's explanation for this line. The books are getting killed by everyone taking the Patriots and just threw out an outrageous line to see if the betting is tied in any rational way to the line. NOTE: The line opened at Pats -3 and moved to -5.

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-3):

Is the Oakland rush defense so bad that Ron Dayne could have an eighty-yard game?

How bad has the Raiders' offense been that is lays just three points to a team that has allowed 35, 38, and 37 points in its last three games? This looks to be setting-up nicely for the return of QB Josh McCown.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+3):

Will Tony Romo reward his employer's $70MM worth of faith?

The Eagles give the appearance of disappointment, but can they really be three-point home underdogs in a fierce divsion rivalry?

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9):

How will QB Steve McNair's return effect the offense? In his last two starts, he couldn't move the team against the Browns or 49ers, scoring 13 and 9 points respectively. Those nine points don't seem that much anymore, do they?

Can QB Ben Roethlisberger continue to buttress the Air AFC North reputation (Big Ben 15 TDs, Derek Anderson 17 and Carson Palmer 14)? How will the TDs be spread out between Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller?

www.faketeams.com

29/10/07

Football forecasters play gamblers like suckers

Oct 16, 2007 04:30 AM

Dave Perkins

Football touts are like real-estate agents: Has there ever been one who isn't advertised as being No.1?

Every Monday afternoon on the radio you hear these services offering you "absolutely free!" that night's NFL point-spread winner. Last week, one tout even claimed such spectacular inside information that the Las Vegas line "is three touchdowns out."

Well, now. Since Dallas was favoured by 10 points over Buffalo, that means either the Cowboys should have been favoured by 31 or Buffalo the chalk by 11. Since you don't see a lot of 31-point road favourites in the NFL, is it the other way? Uh, no. If the Bills had been 11-point favourites, we'd all have bet the Cowboys and gone to Europe for dinner.

It was just another bogus claim from one of the tout services, which can operate like this:

Say 100 suckers call for help. Fifty get the game one way and 50 get it the other. Of the 50 winners, the following week 25 get one side and 25 get the other. So after two weeks, 25 suckers are 2-0 and ready to purchase the CN Tower from the guy. The 50 losers are also split 25-25. The 25 guys who start 0-2 go find another tout service. The 50 in the middle, who are now 1-1, might be receptive to another kick at the can.

At some point, the hard sell begins and guys with deese-dose-dem accents start phoning, sometimes endlessly, trying to sell you information services.

Obviously, if these people really "knew" anything - like how a Norv Turner-coached team will beat a Mike Shanahan-coached team 41-3 and on the road, no less - they would be quietly sitting in Las Vegas earning a very good living. Tax-free, too.

Football betting, when done for recreation and enjoyment, is fun and the miracle of the Internet means every game is right there under your mouse. There is research to be done and trends to be noted, i.e., you always bet against the Chiefs the week after they play the Raiders, since they hate each other so much they always leave it on the field. That kind of science.

The one about betting the home underdogs on Monday night gets plenty of play, but that means you had money on Joey Harrington last night against the Giants. Yikes. It was easier to watch the Red Sox and Indians to see if they could get six innings in before the NFL game ended.

Anyway, here are one man's personal rules for NFL betting:

If you bet under on the over/under total, there is guaranteed to be a return touchdown, either a kick, interception or fumble.

If you bet the over, each team is guaranteed to lose a fumble inside the other team's 5-yard line.

If you lay 3 1/2 points, your team will win in overtime on a field goal.

If you take 5 1/2 points, your team will give up a touchdown in overtime.

If your team misses a convert, you will lose your bet by a half-point.

If the team you bet against misses a convert, it always makes the two-pointer on the next touchdown.

Every long kick return by your team is guaranteed to come with a holding call.

When you bet the over, every penalty the referees call takes the ball toward midfield.

Vinny Testaverde, who cost me money as a 23-year-old and as a 33-year-old, apparently is going to get off his couch and cost me money as a 43-year-old. On the road, no less.

16/10/07

SEC Football Week 7 Game Predictions Wrap-Ups

Posted by Eugenio Hernandez III

October 15, 2007 5:00AM

What an ugly week to be betting against the spread. I go five and one in my weekly updated predictions, only to go one and five on my weekly spread predictions. No wonder the house always win. The only game I was unable to predict was the LSU shocker against Kentucky. Kentucky had an extra two days of rest after their loss to South Carolina and it showed. On the other hand, the Tigers looked banged up and exhausted. When they could have used their bruiser the most, Jacob Hester, he was too tired and hurt to go in on the last play of the game, a fourth and two.

Don't get me wrong, I frequently refer to Hester as "Mr Reliable", as it almost seems automatic for him to get four yards every time he touches the ball. However, the guy needed a week off after the beating he took against the Gators. The Tigers are still in the top five and can easily make it to the title game if they win out (easier said then done). Despite having won, teams such as Auburn, Alabama and Georgia, obviously don't believe in style points, having beat their opponents by a combined eight points. What the heck is going on this year?!